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Changing spatiotemporal patterns of seasonal to annual precipitation extremes in the U.S. Great Plains region
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| Created: | Nov 03, 2025 at 7:37 p.m. (UTC) | |
| Last updated: | Jun 04, 2026 at 6:44 p.m. (UTC) | |
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| Sharing Status: | Public |
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Abstract
Precipitation extremes, such as droughts and floods, are key stress points for water management, and challenges increase further when considering compound precipitation extremes, such as recurring extreme conditions (consecutive wet or dry periods) and ‘weather whiplash’ transitions from anomalously wet to anomalously dry conditions (or vice versa). Unfortunately, climate models struggle to predict extremes, and therefore understanding historical trajectories of change may offer one of the best clues for how precipitation extremes may persist or change in the future. Here, we investigated historical spatiotemporal dynamics in seasonal and annual precipitation extremes across the U.S. Great Plains (USGP) region, which spans ## km2 in parts of ## states. We developed a percentile-based approach to quantify six typologies of extremes (isolated wet/dry, recurring wet/dry, dry-to-wet and wet-to-dry whiplash) in a methodologically consistent manner across time and space. Each of these extreme types was identified at both annual and seasonal resolution from YYYY to YYYY. We found that annual and seasonal precipitation is increasing across the USGP, particularly during the spring, which is accompanied by significantly more frequent isolated wet and recurring wet extremes. These dynamics were correlated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) patterns, with extreme wet conditions 33% more frequent during El Nino conditions across the central and southern USGP. These changes in precipitation extremes can have impacts on diverse processes such as agriculture management and reservoir operations and the changes we document underscore the necessity of adaptive management strategies to improve climate resilience in agricultural and water resource sectors.
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Temporal
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