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Fixed scores, changing interpretation: a three-axis audit of wetland vegetation--agriculture associations, 2011--2021
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| Created: | Jul 28, 2026 at 1:48 a.m. (UTC) | |
| Last updated: | Jul 28, 2026 at 2:32 a.m. (UTC) | |
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| Sharing Status: | Public |
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Abstract
Monitoring programs may apply fixed scores across survey cycles, but a recurring association can support different interpretations when score identity, evaluation support, or spatial composition changes. We constructed three retrospective score archetypes from 143 sites in the 2011 U.S. National Wetland Condition Assessment; none is an official condition index. We applied the rules without refitting to 2016 (n=105) and 2021 (n=101) cohorts with no detected site overlap. All six primary pooled later-cycle slopes relating standardized score to mapped agriculture within 1 km were positive, with nominal pointwise state-cluster 95% intervals above zero. In the mapped-positive subset, pooled taxonomic and community intervals remained above zero, whereas both three-component-score intervals included zero. After within-state separation, the intervals included zero for the 2021 taxonomic score and both three-component scores. Single-site deletion preserved 33 of 42 state-specific slope signs, including 31 of 35 positive and two of seven negative signs. An exact cross-product identity assigned 54-71% of each pooled slope to the zero-versus-positive term, indicating that most of each association reflected a zero-versus-any-agriculture contrast rather than a gradient among agricultural sites. Changing the taxonomic threshold retained positive later-cycle intervals while reducing selected taxa from 288 to 38. Across audited specifications, pooled direction recurred while biological content, sample support, exposure contrast, and spatial interpretation changed. Zero inclusion was a sensitivity marker, not evidence of coefficient differences. These exploratory results motivate a three-axis claim-to-design audit before score reuse. They do not establish ecological-condition validity, calibration stability, or a causal response to agriculture.
Subject Keywords
Coverage
Spatial
Temporal
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This resource is shared under the Creative Commons Attribution CC BY.
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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