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| Created: | Oct 15, 2025 at 6:54 p.m. (UTC) | |
| Last updated: | Oct 15, 2025 at 7:56 p.m. (UTC) | |
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Abstract
We developed long-term estimates of future river flows across the Upper Mississippi River Basin using the North Central River Forecast Center (RFC) modeling suite, in a project funded by the Cooperative Institute for Research to Operations in Hydrology (Kenney, 2022a). These data and modeling outputs are available at 269 NWS forecast points, and including eight historical reconstructions alongside 24 future flow projections spanning three future climate scenarios out to the year 2100. The NWS river forecasting system uses the Snow17 Model for snowmelt, Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model, and Tatum routing scheme, in addition to RES_SNGL and RES-J models for reservoir operations. We used NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 v1 statistically downscaled climate data to force the NWS North Central RFC models to produce river flow estimates in response to future climate scenarios:
Thrasher, B., Wang, W., Michaelis, A. et al. NASA Global Daily Downscaled
Projections, CMIP6. Sci Data 9, 262 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-022-01393-4
Thrasher, B., Wang, W., Michaelis, A. Nemani, R. (2021). NEX-GDDP-CMIP6. NASA
Center for Climate Simulation. https://doi.org/10.7917/OFSG3345
Because the NWS RFC models were 6-hourly, we aggregated the daily NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 data, and "downscaled" temporally to 6-hourly according to basic historical resampling methods.
These data are considered "raw" and have not undergone extensive analysis. Authors are in the process of writing up a manuscript reporting on future flow scenarios based on the data, and caveats and assumptions, which will included detailed quality checks.
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| Name | Organization | Address | Phone | Author Identifiers |
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| CIROH DATA | CIROH | AL, US |
How to Cite
This resource is shared under the Creative Commons Attribution-NoCommercial CC BY-NC.
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
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