Hydrology scenarios that characterize plausible future drought conditions in the Colorado River Basin


Authors:
Owners:
Resource type: Composite Resource
Storage: The size of this resource is 41.9 MB
Created: Sep 03, 2020 at 7:49 p.m.
Last updated: Apr 09, 2021 at 3:03 a.m.
Citation: See how to cite this resource
Sharing Status: Public
Views: 494
Downloads: 113
+1 Votes: Be the first one to 
 this.
Comments: No comments (yet)

Abstract

This dataset holds streamflow sequences for each of three drought scenarios developed to characterize plausible future drought conditions in the Colorado River Basin. These sequences were produced using the methods described in Center for Colorado River Studies Future of the Colorado River Project white paper 4 entitled “The Future Hydrology of the Colorado River Basin” by Salehabadi, Tarboton et al. (2020). This study defined three drought scenarios: (1) Millennium Drought, (2) Mid 20th Century Drought and (3) Paleo Tree Ring Severe Drought. The first two were defined using the US Bureau of Reclamation Natural flows from 2000-2018 and 1953-1977 respectively. The last was defined using the years 1576-1600 from the Meko et al., 2017 tree ring reconstruction of streamflow at Lees Ferry. 100 streamflow traces, each 42 years long were produced for each scenario by resampling years with replacement. Resampling from identified past drought scenarios, provides test droughts based on past flows that are more severe, due to the variety in the sampling, than any past droughts that have actually occurred. They are nevertheless plausible, since they are derived from past records. We used a nonparametric resampling approach referred to as “Water Year Block Disaggregation” to split the simulated annual flow at Lees Ferry into monthly flow at each of the 29 Colorado River Simulation System (CRSS) natural inflow sites. For the first two scenarios where there are historic natural flows at the 29 CRSS sites, this selects the entire water year block of monthly flows across sites for the corresponding drought year. For the paleo scenario, where there are not flows at each of the sites, the historic natural flow year with annual flow at Lees Ferry closest to the paleo flow is selected, and then flows across the sites and months adjusted by the ratio of paleo flow to closest historic flow.

Subject Keywords

Deleting all keywords will set the resource sharing status to private.

Resource Level Coverage

Spatial

Coordinate System/Geographic Projection:
WGS 84 EPSG:4326
Coordinate Units:
Decimal degrees
North Latitude
41.5424°
East Longitude
-105.1301°
South Latitude
30.3360°
West Longitude
-115.6769°

Content

readme.txt

Streamflow sequences for each of three drought scenarios developed to characterize plausible future drought conditions in the Colorado River Basin described by Salehabadi, Tarboton et al. (2020). 

Generated streamflow traces (Monthly and Annual) for each drought scenario are available as Excel files. 

      •   MillenniumDrought_2000-2018_Monthly.xlsx
      •   Mid20thCenturyDrought_1953-1977_Monthly.xlsx
      •   PaleoTreeRingDrought_1576-1600_Monthly.xlsx

      •   MillenniumDrought_2000-2018_AnnualWaterYear.xlsx
      •   Mid20thCenturyDrought_1953-1977_AnnualWaterYear.xlsx
      •   PaleoTreeRingDrought_1576-1600_AnnualWaterYear.xlsx

Each Excel file is comprised of 100 sheets, each containing a 42-year sequence (Trace) of monthly or annual streamflow at each of the 29 CRSS sites. USGS Gage Numbers (Streamflow Gaging site number) are used to identify each CRSS natural inflow site (ID = 1 to 29) for which flow is simulated. The corresponding USGS Gage Numbers and CRSS site IDs and a map of their locations are provided in an Excel file (USGSGages_CRSSSites_CorrespondingIDs.xlsx).

In the Excel files for the Millennium and Mid 20th Century droughts the first two columns (A and B) hold the water year and month selected from historic flows to simulate that year.  The remaining columns hold intervening natural flow for the corresponding site, in acre-ft.  Intervening natural flow is the streamflow originating in the subwatershed draining directly to that site without first flowing past any upstream site.  For the Paleo Tree-Ring drought the Excel file has three leading columns.  Column A (wy_TR) holds the tree-ring reconstruction year sampled for that trace year.  Columns B and C hold the water year and month selected from historic flows as being closest to the tree-ring flow at Lees Ferry.  The remaining columns hold intervening natural flow for the corresponding site, after adjustment by the ratio of paleo flow to closest historic flow. 

The files described above were produced using R code, the US Bureau of Reclamation Natural Flow Data Base Excel file, and Tree-Ring Reconstructed flow at Lees Ferry from the most skillful model of Meko et al., 2017.  For reproducibility the R scripts used, and the input data are saved in the Folder WYBlockDisagg that has the following files:
      •   WaterYearBlockDisaggregation_HistoricScenario.R.  R code to generate the monthly streamflow traces based on historic drought scenarios.
      •   WaterYearBlockDisaggregation_PaleoTreeRingScenario.R.  R code to generate the monthly streamflow traces based on tree ring drought scenarios.
      •   NaturalFlows1906-2018_20200110.xlsx.  Natural Flow Data Base, version 1/10/2020 from U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, (2020), https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/NaturalFlow/current.html.
      •   TreeRingFlowLeesFerry.xlsx. Tree Ring Reconstructed Flow at Lees Ferry (Most skillful model of Meko et al., 2017) from https://www.treeflow.info/content/upper-colorado. 

-----------------------
References

Meko, D. M., C. A. Woodhouse and E. R. Bigio, (2017), "Southern California Tree-Ring Study," California Department of Water Resources, https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/fbaf/487604e2537c8f51037035e59c13113edeeb.pdf.

Salehabadi, H., D. Tarboton, E. Kuhn, B. Udall, K. Wheeler, D. Rosenberg, S. Goeking and J. C. Schmidt, (2020), "The Future Hydrology of the Colorado River Basin," Center for Colorado River Studies, White Paper 4, Utah State University, https://qcnr.usu.edu/coloradoriver/files/WhitePaper4.pdf.

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, (2020), Colorado River Basin Natural Flow and Salt Data, Colorado River Basin Natural Flow Database. Last modified January 10, 2020, https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/NaturalFlow/current.html

References

Sources

Derived From: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, (2020), Colorado River Basin Natural Flow and Salt Data, Colorado River Basin Natural Flow Database. Last modified January 10, 2020, https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/NaturalFlow/current.html.
Derived From: Tree Ring Reconstructed Flow at Lees Ferry (Most skillful model of Meko et al., 2017) from https://www.treeflow.info/content/upper-colorado.

Related Resources

This resource is described by: Salehabadi, H., D. Tarboton, E. Kuhn, B. Udall, K. Wheeler, D. Rosenberg, S. Goeking and J. C. Schmidt, (2020), "The Future Hydrology of the Colorado River Basin," Center for Colorado River Studies, White Paper 4, Utah State University, https://qcnr.usu.edu/coloradoriver/files/WhitePaper4.pdf.
This resource cites: Meko, D. M., C. A. Woodhouse and E. R. Bigio, (2017), "Southern California Tree-Ring Study," California Department of Water Resources, https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/fbaf/487604e2537c8f51037035e59c13113edeeb.pdf.
This resource belongs to the following collections:
Title Owners Sharing Status My Permission
Data Collection to Supplement the Future Hydrology of the Colorado River Basin Study David Tarboton · Homa Salehabadi  Public &  Shareable Open Access

Credits

Funding Agencies

This resource was created using funding from the following sources:
Agency Name Award Title Award Number
Walton Family Foundation
Catena Foundation

Contributors

People or Organizations that contributed technically, materially, financially, or provided general support for the creation of the resource's content but are not considered authors.

Name Organization Address Phone Author Identifiers
Sara Goeking Utah State University Utah, US
Eric Kuhn Former General Manager of the Colorado River Water Conservation District Colorado, US
John C. Schmidt Utah State University Utah, US
Brad Udall Colorado Water Institute, Colorado State University Colorado, US
Kevin Wheeler University of Oxford Oxfordshire, GB
David E Rosenberg Utah State University Utah, US

How to Cite

Salehabadi, H., D. Tarboton (2021). Hydrology scenarios that characterize plausible future drought conditions in the Colorado River Basin, HydroShare, http://www.hydroshare.org/resource/ca2e152c9fca4b2aa7c3294a388c522d

This resource is shared under the Creative Commons Attribution CC BY.

 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
CC-BY

Comments

There are currently no comments

New Comment

required