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| Type: | Resource | |
| Storage: | The size of this resource is 81.2 MB | |
| Created: | Apr 21, 2025 at 4:30 p.m. (UTC) | |
| Last updated: | Nov 05, 2025 at 9:51 p.m. (UTC) | |
| Published date: | Nov 05, 2025 at 9:51 p.m. (UTC) | |
| DOI: | 10.4211/hs.cc5b208be7a743aba85e64f2a7c61680 | |
| Citation: | See how to cite this resource |
| Sharing Status: | Published |
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| Views: | 1277 |
| Downloads: | 99 |
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| Comments: | No comments (yet) |
Abstract
Overtopping failures of earthen dams are a growing concern under intensifying extreme rainfall. This study introduces a probabilistic fragility framework that combines hydrologic modeling, hydraulic analysis, and soil erodibility to assess erosion risk under uncertain load and resistance. Fragility curves derived from Monte Carlo simulations quantify erosion initiation and severity as functions of rainfall depth and excess shear stress. Application to multiple dams affected during the 2015 South Carolina floods reproduces observed outcomes ranging from complete breach to no damage. The framework also captures cascading effects, where failure of an upstream structure increases downstream loading and erosion potential. Compared with deterministic approaches, the method better represents outcome variability and provides a more reliable basis for dam safety assessment and flood risk mitigation.
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Funding Agencies
This resource was created using funding from the following sources:
| Agency Name | Award Title | Award Number |
|---|---|---|
| National Science Foundation | None | 2152896 |
| NOAA via the Cooperative Institute for Research to Operations in Hydrology (CIROH) | None | NA22NWS4320003 |
| Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC) of the US Army Corps of Engineers | None | W912HZ-21C-0067 |
Contributors
People or Organizations that contributed technically, materially, financially, or provided general support for the creation of the resource's content but are not considered authors.
| Name | Organization | Address | Phone | Author Identifiers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Hanif Chaudhry | University of South Carolina | |||
| Jasim Imran | University of South Carolina |
How to Cite
This resource is shared under the Creative Commons Attribution CC BY.
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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