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A Modified Atmospheric River Scale for Flood Hazards


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Created: May 13, 2025 at 10:41 p.m. (UTC)
Last updated: Feb 16, 2026 at 2:32 p.m. (UTC) (Metadata update)
Published date: Feb 16, 2026 at 2:32 p.m. (UTC)
DOI: 10.4211/hs.cee30237618d48e8bb0d09ecff9a4a7c
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Content types: Geographic Feature Content  CSV Content 
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Abstract

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are key drivers of regional water supply and flood hazard in subtropical and mid-latitude regions, generating interwoven beneficial and hazardous impacts. The original AR scale, developed for early-warning communication, ranks ARs from 1 (“primarily beneficial”) to 5 (“primarily hazardous”) based on atmospheric vapor transport. However, the AR scale does not account for physical processes on the land surface that can strongly influence flood response. Analyzing over 70,000 AR landfalls across 142 catchments in California and central Chile, here we show that runoff efficiency, primarily controlled by antecedent soil moisture, is the dominant source of peak streamflow variability not explained by the AR scale. Based on this insight, we present a simple modification to the AR scale for flood hazards that incorporates antecedent moisture conditions. This modification close to doubles the scale’s correspondence with peak streamflow and increases the number of flood-generating ARs classified as hazardous by over 30%, raising AR flood detection rates to 81% in California and 64% in central Chile. These findings demonstrate that incorporating critical land surface conditions into hazard classification can enhance early-warning tools for communicating hazard likelihood.

See Webb, M. J. et al. Antecedent moisture enhances early warning of atmospheric river flood hazards. Nat Commun https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-69286-3 (2026) doi:10.1038/s41467-026-69286-3.

Subject Keywords

Coverage

Spatial

Coordinate System/Geographic Projection:
WGS 84 EPSG:4326
Coordinate Units:
Decimal degrees
North Latitude
42.1440°
East Longitude
-69.7690°
South Latitude
-40.3265°
West Longitude
-124.1170°

Temporal

Start Date:
End Date:

Content

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The following web services are available for data contained in this resource. Geospatial Feature and Raster data are made available via Open Geospatial Consortium Web Services. The provided links can be copied and pasted into GIS software to access these data. Multidimensional NetCDF data are made available via a THREDDS Data Server using remote data access protocols such as OPeNDAP. Other data services may be made available in the future to support additional data types.

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Related Resources

This resource is described by Webb, M. J. et al. Antecedent moisture enhances early warning of atmospheric river flood hazards. Nat Commun https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-69286-3 (2026) doi:10.1038/s41467-026-69286-3.

Credits

Funding Agencies

This resource was created using funding from the following sources:
Agency Name Award Title Award Number
U.S. National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program (GRFP) Grant No. 1937966
U.S. National Science Foundation PATHWAYS International Research Experience for Students (IRES) Grant No. 1954140

How to Cite

Webb, M. J. (2026). A Modified Atmospheric River Scale for Flood Hazards, HydroShare, https://doi.org/10.4211/hs.cee30237618d48e8bb0d09ecff9a4a7c

This resource is shared under the Creative Commons Attribution CC BY.

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
CC-BY

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