Agreement and uncertainty among climate change impact models: A synthesis of sagebrush steppe vegetation predictions


An older version of this resource https://doi.org/10.4211/hs.3b420b738128411e8e1e11b38b83b5f1 is available.
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Owners: Scott Zimmer
Type: Resource
Storage: The size of this resource is 105.8 MB
Created: Jun 10, 2020 at 6:18 p.m.
Last updated: Feb 02, 2024 at 7:34 a.m. (Metadata update)
Published date: Jun 19, 2020 at 4:51 p.m.
DOI: 10.4211/hs.e6b15828d20843eab4e2babd89787f41
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Abstract

Ecologists have built numerous models to project how climate change will impact rangeland vegetation, but these projections are difficult to validate, making their utility for land management planning unclear. In the absence of direct validation, researchers can ask whether projections from different models are consistent. Here, we analyzed 42 models of climate change impacts on sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata Nutt.), cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum L.), pinyon-juniper (Pinus L. spp. and Juniperus L. spp.), and forage production on Bureau of Land Management (BLM) lands in the United States Intermountain West. These models consistently projected the potential for pinyon-juniper declines and forage production increases. Sagebrush models consistently projected no change in most areas, and declines in southern extremes. In contrast, projected impacts on cheatgrass were weak or uncertain. In most instances, projections for high and low emissions scenarios differed only slightly.

The projected vegetation impacts have important management implications for agencies such as the BLM. Pinyon-juniper declines would reduce the need to control pinyon-juniper encroachment, and increases in forage production could benefit livestock and wildlife populations in some regions. Sagebrush conservation and restoration projects may be challenged in areas projected to experience sagebrush declines. However, projected vegetation impacts may also interact with increasing future wildfire risk in ways single-response models do not anticipate. In particular, projected increases in forage production could increase management challenges related to fire.

Included in this page are the data, code, and directions used to complete this analysis and visualize results. This includes the original images of model results used in our analysis, and the code used to process and analyze these images to produce our final results.

Coverage

Spatial

Coordinate System/Geographic Projection:
WGS 84 EPSG:4326
Coordinate Units:
Decimal degrees
Place/Area Name:
U.S. Intermountain West
North Latitude
50.0991°
East Longitude
-102.1032°
South Latitude
30.0401°
West Longitude
-121.7907°
Leaflet Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors

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Data Services

The following web services are available for data contained in this resource. Geospatial Feature and Raster data are made available via Open Geospatial Consortium Web Services. The provided links can be copied and pasted into GIS software to access these data. Multidimensional NetCDF data are made available via a THREDDS Data Server using remote data access protocols such as OPeNDAP. Other data services may be made available in the future to support additional data types.

Additional Metadata

Related Resources

This resource updates and replaces a previous version Zimmer, S., G. Grosklos, P. Adler, P. Belmont (2019). Agreement and uncertainty among climate change impact models: A synthesis of sagebrush steppe vegetation predictions, HydroShare, https://doi.org/10.4211/hs.3b420b738128411e8e1e11b38b83b5f1
This resource belongs to the following collections:
Title Owners Sharing Status My Permission
Climate Adaptation Science Project Work CAS Coordinator · David Rosenberg  Public &  Shareable Open Access

Credits

Funding Agencies

This resource was created using funding from the following sources:
Agency Name Award Title Award Number
The Wilderness Society
National Science Foundation Climate Adaptation Science 1633756

How to Cite

Zimmer, S., G. Grosklos, P. Belmont, P. Adler (2020). Agreement and uncertainty among climate change impact models: A synthesis of sagebrush steppe vegetation predictions, HydroShare, https://doi.org/10.4211/hs.e6b15828d20843eab4e2babd89787f41

This resource is shared under the Creative Commons Attribution CC BY.

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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