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Ecologists have built numerous models to project how climate change will impact rangeland vegetation, but these projections are difficult to validate, making their utility for land management planning unclear. In the absence of direct validation, researchers can ask whether projections from different models are consistent. Here, we analyzed 42 models of climate change impacts on sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata Nutt.), cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum L.), pinyon-juniper (Pinus L. spp. and Juniperus L. spp.), and forage production on Bureau of Land Management (BLM) lands in the United States Intermountain West. These models consistently projected the potential for pinyon-juniper declines and forage production increases. Sagebrush models consistently projected no change in most areas, and declines in southern extremes. In contrast, projected impacts on cheatgrass were weak or uncertain. In most instances, projections for high and low emissions scenarios differed only slightly.
The projected vegetation impacts have important management implications for agencies such as the BLM. Pinyon-juniper declines would reduce the need to control pinyon-juniper encroachment, and increases in forage production could benefit livestock and wildlife populations in some regions. Sagebrush conservation and restoration projects may be challenged in areas projected to experience sagebrush declines. However, projected vegetation impacts may also interact with increasing future wildfire risk in ways single-response models do not anticipate. In particular, projected increases in forage production could increase management challenges related to fire.
Included in this page are the data, code, and directions used to complete this analysis and visualize results. This includes the original images of model results used in our analysis, and the code used to process and analyze these images to produce our final results.
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See Draft 2 of manuscript and figures in files "draft1_zimmer_et_al_2020.pdf"
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Related Resources
This resource updates and replaces a previous version
Zimmer, S., G. Grosklos, P. Adler, P. Belmont (2019). Agreement and uncertainty among climate change impact models: A synthesis of sagebrush steppe vegetation predictions, HydroShare, https://doi.org/10.4211/hs.3b420b738128411e8e1e11b38b83b5f1
This resource was created using funding from the following sources:
Agency Name
Award Title
Award Number
The Wilderness Society
National Science Foundation
Climate Adaptation Science
1633756
How to Cite
Zimmer, S., G. Grosklos, P. Belmont, P. Adler (2020). Agreement and uncertainty among climate change impact models: A synthesis of sagebrush steppe vegetation predictions, HydroShare, https://doi.org/10.4211/hs.e6b15828d20843eab4e2babd89787f41
This resource is shared under the Creative Commons Attribution CC BY.
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