ABSTRACT:

Both state and federal wildlife agencies strive to conserve and protect wildlife and their habitats as an important public resource. Applied management decisions often rely on being able to obtain data that can efficiently and effectively enhance the understanding of these systems for informing management actions. Wildlife managers often focus efforts on a small subset of species from an ecosystem, typically called focal species, who can serve as surrogates for understanding the health and function of the system. Models that consider how these focal species interact with the ecosystem are often used to better understand important aspects of their life history, ecology, and conservation needs. In this study, we consider the northern goshawk, a top-tier avian predator often used as a focal species. We conducted a statewide nest site selection model for northern goshawks in Utah using an analytical hierarchy process. We then used the model in conjunction with the Forest Vegetation Simulator to predict changes to nesting habitat over the next 150 years in Utah under different climate scenarios. Based on consensus between all predictions, we identified potential refugia, especially in the Uinta-Wasatch-Cache and Ashley National Forests, that remains intact as high suitability nesting habitat under all climate scenarios.