ABSTRACT:

Management of water resources, including evaluating potential impacts of climate change in water-rich regions such as the Great Lakes, is critical for long-term sustainability. In Western New York (WNY), stream and groundwater discharges to Lake Erie and Ontario are major components of the lakes’ water balance. The aim of this research is to assess the hydrological response of the WNY basin under climate change to provide useful insight to aid stakeholders and policymakers in developing adaptation strategies. To represent the uncertainty of future projections, ensembles of scenarios SSP2 4.5 and SSP5 8.5 were used to drive a coupled Groundwater and Surface-water FLOW (GSFLOW) model of WNY. Our results show variability in projected precipitation across ensemble members. Future warming conditions will increase evaporation rates in WNY under both scenarios, affecting processes at the soil and unsaturated zones. However, groundwater is expected to be less sensitive to climatic changes, acting as a buffer to impacts on surface water and stream discharges to the Great Lakes