ABSTRACT:

This study assesses snow water equivalent (SWE) simulation uncertainty in the National Water Model (NWM) due to forcing and model parameterization, using data from 46 Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) sites in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). We evaluated the newly developed Analysis of Record for Calibration (AORC) forcing data for SWE simulation and examined the impact of bias correction applied to AORC precipitation and temperature. Additionally, we investigated the sensitivity of SWE simulations to choices of physical parameterization schemes through 72 ensemble experiments. Results showed that NWM driven by AORC forcings captured the overall temporal variation of SWE but underestimated its amount. Adjusting AORC precipitation with SNOTEL observations reduced SWE root-mean-square error (RMSE) by 66%, adjusting temperature trimmed it by 10%, and adjusting both decreased it by 69%. Among the physical processes, the snow/soil temperature time scheme (STC) demonstrated the highest sensitivity, followed by the surface exchange coefficient for heat (SFC), snow surface albedo (ALB), and rainfall and snowfall partitioning (SNF), while the lower boundary of soil temperature (TBOT) proved to be insensitive. Further optimization of the parameterization combination resulted in a 12% SWE RMSE reduction. When combined with the bias-corrected AORC precipitation and temperature, this optimization led to a remarkable 78% SWE RMSE reduction. Despite these enhancements, a persistent slow and late spring ablation suggests model deficiencies in snow ablation physics. The study emphasizes the critical need to enhance the accuracy of forcing data in mountainous regions and address model parameterization uncertainty through optimization efforts.

ABSTRACT:

This study first compares two different passive microwave snow water equivalent (SWE) retrievals, namely the retrieval from the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) and that from the Global Change Observation Mission – Water (GCOM-W1) Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2); it further creates an optimal blending mechanism that merges the two retrievals with in situ observations from the Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) and Cooperative Observer Program (COOP) networks. The assessments of the two products are done over conterminous United States (CONUS) for the snow seasons (November–June) of the water years 2017–2019 using in situ data and the SNOw Data Assimilation System (SNODAS) SWE analysis. Both satellite products tend to underestimate SWE. Between the two, AMSR2 retrieval outperforms in terms of correlation with observations and depth of saturation, but it exhibits a distinctive, seasonally varying bias that is not seen in ATMS retrieval. The negative bias over the early snow season, as further analysis indicates, most likely stems from AMSR2 retrieval’s use of a high frequency channel (i.e., 89 GHz) for shallow snow detection, while the impact of differing assumptions of snow density is marginal. The blending scheme, developed on the basis of the validation experiment, features a histogram-based bias correction as a supplement to optimal interpolation. Cross-validation suggests that interpolated station product without the satellite background broadly underperforms the blended in situ-satellite product, confirming the utility of the satellite retrievals. Furthermore, the a priori bias correction mechanism is shown to be effective in mitigating large fluctuations in bias. Finally, the bias-corrected, blended in situ-satellite product performs comparably or even favorably against SNODAS over many parts of the CONUS, with important implications for joint use of satellite and in situ observations for hydrological monitoring and forecasting.