ABSTRACT:

Drought analyzes in the Porsuk Creek Watershed had been conducted using the past (1970-2018) and future (2020-2100) climate data produced according to the optimistic (RCP4.5) and pessimistic (RCP8.5) scenarios of HadGEM2-ES global climate model, with the help of Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), Standard Runoff Index (SRI) and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). The analysis revealed that the basin was located in an arid region, it was determined that hydrological and agricultural droughts were dominant and a meteorologically normal climate prevailed in the past. Sub basin in the study area where agricultural drought is experienced severely are Odunpazari, Alpu and Tepebasi, respectively. Porsuk Creek Watershed tends to be drought meteorologically and wet hydrologically in the future. In terms of agricultural drought, although there is a potential for drought over time, it is determined a normal climate will prevail throughout the basin. Compared to reference (1970-2000) period, the climate change will occur in the manner of temperature and precipitation increases in the future.

ABSTRACT:

The purpose of the study was to determine the effect of climate change on wheat yield in Porsuk Creek watershed. Wheat yield analyses was carried out with the help of WOFOST model using the past (2016-2017) and future (2020-2100) climate data produced according to the optimistic (RCP4.5) and pessimistic (RCP8.5) scenarios of HadGEM2-ES global climate model in Porsuk Creek watershed. . As a result of this study, important datas on crop yield estimation have been produced for use by decision makers. In this way; planning of wheat farming will be made.